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Heat Pump Efficiency Calculator

Estimate seasonal COP, annual electricity, heating cost, and CO2 for an air-source, geothermal, or mini-split heat pump. Includes a climate-zone derate and side-by-side comparison vs natural gas, oil, propane, or electric resistance.

Heat pump configuration

Steady-state, instantaneous.

HSPF / 3.412 = seasonal COP.

Electricity and annual heating load

US average is 16.5 cents/kWh.

Defaults to zone average; replace with a Manual J value if you have one.

Compare against another fuel

Gas 95%, oil 85%, propane 85%, electric 100%.

Effective seasonal COP

2.76

For every 1 kWh of electricity, this heat pump delivers about 2.8 kWh of heat across the heating season.

Annual electricity

6,517 kWh

Annual heating cost

$1,075

CO2 emissions

5,539 lb/yr

Comparison fuel cost

$776

Annual savings

-$299

Comparison CO2

7,566 lb/yr

Efficiency rating

Good (COP 2.0 to 3.0)

Air-source COP drops roughly 10 percent across a cold winter. Cold-climate inverter models hold COP above 2.0 down to about 5 deg F.

Heat pump costs about $299.31 more per year than natural gas.

Realized COP blends rated COP and HSPF, then applies a US DOE climate zone derating (ground-source skips the derate). Fuel comparison uses EIA / EPA conversion factors and ignores equipment purchase or installation cost.

Electricity Needed to Deliver 10 kWh of Heat

Seasonal COPElectricity inputEfficiency equivalent
2.05.00 kWh200%
3.03.33 kWh300%
4.02.50 kWh400%
2.54.00 kWh250%
3.52.86 kWh350%

Frequently Asked Questions about the Heat Pump Efficiency Calculator

What is the difference between COP and HSPF on a heat pump?
COP (coefficient of performance) is an instantaneous, lab-bench number: heat delivered divided by electricity in, both in the same units. A COP of 3.5 means you get 3.5 kWh of heat for every 1 kWh of electricity. HSPF (heating seasonal performance factor) is a seasonal average measured under the AHRI 210/240 test, expressed in BTU per watt-hour. To convert it to a seasonal COP, divide by 3.412 (the BTU-to-Wh constant): an HSPF of 9 equals a seasonal COP of about 2.64, and an HSPF of 11 (cold-climate models) equals about 3.22. HSPF is the more honest field number because it already bakes in defrost losses, part-load cycling, and the test's mix of mild and cold hours. The calculator blends both signals and then derates for your climate zone.
Air-source or ground-source: which heat pump is right for my house?
Air-source systems usually have lower installation cost because they do not need a ground loop. Ground-source systems can provide more stable source temperatures, but site conditions, drilling or trenching, load, distribution, and local prices drive the result. Get a Manual J load calculation and local quotes; the calculator estimates operating energy only.
Why does climate matter so much for heat pump efficiency?
Air-source performance changes with outdoor conditions. The calculator applies a climate multiplier as a planning assumption; it does not model a specific unit's capacity, defrost behavior, or backup heat. Use the AHRI rating and manufacturer performance data at the local design temperature, then have a qualified contractor size the system from a Manual J load.
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a natural gas furnace?
It depends on your local electricity rate, gas price, climate, and equipment performance. The calculator uses your rates, assumed seasonal COP, and AFUE to compare fuel use. Do not treat its defaults as current price projections; compare local tariffs and the selected equipment's published performance.
What tax credits or rebates can I get for a heat pump in 2026?
Federal Sections 25C and 25D do not cover qualifying property placed in service or expenditures made after December 31, 2025 under current law. Do not apply the former federal credits to a 2026 installation. State, utility, and income-qualified rebate programs vary by location, funding, equipment, and installation date, so verify them before signing a contract.

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